Report: Micron's HBM Monthly Capacity Expected to Reach 100K Wafers by End of 2026, Doubling from Last Year
Summary
According to Korean media ETNEWS, Micron is aggressively expanding its HBM memory capacity, with monthly wafer starts expected to rise from 40,000-50,000 at the end of 2025 to 100,000 by the end of 2026, doubling within a year. The expansion focuses on 12Hi HBM4 for AI XPUs like NVIDIA's Rubin GPU, with its share of total HBM output projected to increase from 20-30% at the start of the year to 50% by year-end. To support the ramp-up, Micron is increasing equipment purchases, with equipment arriving at its Taiwan and Singapore fabs.
Bubble analysis
This news shows a chipmaker aggressively expanding capacity on AI demand expectations, with capacity doubling implying massive capital expenditure, but without corresponding actual orders or revenue mentioned. This is typical supply-side expansion that could exacerbate bubble risks.
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